A general "Future of the Industry" discussion

[grampa dan]

We all have to forge a path of our own choice, preferably one that suits us.

Im my case we started small, specializing from the beginning in high end and custom work. We grew quickly through the 90's with 22 employees at the peak. I made a purposeful decision to downsize in 2000 because I wanted to do more of the work with my own hands. We built a new shop in 2003 and equipped it with the fancy tools to produce solely high end dimensional work.

The recession hit us like most everyone out there but things are looking much better now. I have a clear vision of our future...

We will continue to specialize in high end dimensional themed signs and environments. I only take on the projects that interest me. We have little or no competition and our market is international in scope. I work in the shop with only part time help, ramping up my crew when I get a big project, working more alone when it's slow. Its a style I like, it's profitable and most importantly it is a LOT of fun.

We will continue to live the dream in Yarrow...

-grampa dan

 

[Craig Sjoquist]

Fred .. Thank you very informative and agrees with you 100%

sure glad I'm still skilled at hand lettering advertising etc.

 

[Steve Werner]

Pat, I'm a big subscriber to what Alan Greenspan ( reserve your judgements ) called " creative destruction". Basically he believed that every time something is destroyed in the business world it creates a new business opportunity.

 

[visualeyez]

I am in offset, and I spent a lot of time this week just thinking from idea to plate as a completely different model than what is being done where I work. I see a few models, price and service being adjusted for each, with rules… and I think that your post Pat is great. You really have to look to the future without being all romantic. Digital takes away craft. I don't mean that it is all bad, because there is opportunity, but if you don't plan for the future, its gonna bite you right on your bottom.

HP now offers a fully digital inkjet printing press, for about $2.5 mil... Plates and small runs are no longer a problem. It was developed here in Corvallis, I make the some labels for them.

 

[Dave Drane]

Well Pat, after reading that (which was very interesting) I am scared hell of the near future. I would hate to be starting out now, and the golf course and retirment is almost looking good.
Great post!!

 

[signmeup]

Vehicle graphics will lose the fleets to changeable banner systems first and smaller clients will follow as sign manufacturers shift into selling systems that can be installed, removed and installed on other vehicles as needed.

This may be true for some large fleets with the advent of some sort of new technolgy. I expect small fleets will remain the same with cut vinyl being the norm. Small business..... plumbers and carpenters etc. will most likely stick with what we are doing for them now. Truck door lettering will be with us for a while yet. The little shop will survive.

 

[TheSellOut]

The future came to me in an email last night! http://www.designyourownsigns.com/

 

[heyskull]

I find no one wants to pay for design time and think that you have everything to hand on the computer!!

This industry is going to die because we aren't charging enough (I sound like my accountant!) = or people don't have a clue how much hard work is put in not only making but designing there signage.
I personally think our biggest enemy is each other whilst we try to beat each others quote.
Only the customer wins.
I know from the 3 other signmakers near me we are getting taking for idiots by the other businesses.
I am certain that signs and vehicle are the best and cheapest form of advertising.

I wish I could specialize in one type of sign but where I am there is not enough business.

SC

 

[The Big Squeegee]

I saw something about some paint that could be applied and used as a TV screen. Perhaps that will develop into a vinyl that will need to be replaced every now and then.

I wondered why everything was going up in price so much in the bad economy. The answer to that may be that sales have decreased to a point that prices had to be increased in order to stay in business. Higher prices and a lack of funding will make the progression of new technologies slow down. The old solution may be the cheaper solution in many cases. New technologies may find it hard to survive in a sluggish economy. I guess we'll just have to wait and see where all this is going.

 

[astro8]

A lot sign shops are specialising and outsourcing. We're doing the opposite and growing.

If you specialise and the industry changes and you can't adapt fast enough you'll go the way of the dodo. I and a lot of the older crew on here have seen it happen. There's a lot of ex-signwriters. ticket and showcard writers that couldn't adapt to computers, plotters and Edges driving buses around.

I like to have a finger in all the pies.

 

[ChiknNutz]

This industry, if you can call it that, seems to be tracking the time line of the industrial revolution about 100 or so years later. Sort of...

Bob, great commentary and insight, I completely agree! Reminds me of an article I read a while back about one of the most revered shoemakers (though I cannot come up with the name). He still fills a niche and commands exorbant prices...good for him.

 

[Pat Whatley]

Well Pat, after reading that (which was very interesting) I am scared hell of the near future.

No reason to be scared and I didn't mean for this to sound like a doom and gloom post. I watched a lot of incredible hand lettering guys get mowed over when vinyl started taking over. The "vinyl only" shops who haven't established a network of subcontractors for digital printing and large production runs have all locally disappeared. It won't be that long before something sweeps in and replaces digital printing.

It's a whole lot easier to think ahead about how to react to the change than to have to make a panicked reaction to it after it's too late.

 

[signmeup]

Meh..... printing goes back 5000 years. It ain't gonna stop in my lifetime.

 

[Rick]

If this job was only 50 miles closer...

http://careeradvocate.com/page/job/...d&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=SimplyHired

 

[knifemaker3]

Every generation since the beginning of time has had to struggle with new technology of some sort be it from using stone implements to metal, all hand crafted to the industrial revolution, or sign writing to computers and vinyl cutters, digital prints, etc.

The key to everything is like has already been said. Be willing to adapt or expect to get left behind. It may not seem right or fair, but it's the way of things.

I'm just starting in the signage end of my business, but I already know that if I don't learn certain things like LED, computers, etc. I'm soon going to be outside looking in. I have great respect for those sign writers of the past and the great looking stuff they produced. But, their days are over for the most part and are being replaced for better or worst with new ways of doing things.

We as business people will either adapt or no longer be in business.

For myself, I plan on investigating more into LED signs and any other newer stuff coming down the track. Why, because I realize that things now change sometimes from year to year and what is working today may not be in a year or so and if I don't adapt, I'm out.

So, I intend to imbrace the change as much as possible in order to survive. If not, well I'd better be looking for something else to do.

Just my thoughts which aren't worth much in this world these days....

 

[Rodi]

Pat that is a great "Threat" Analysis that you put out. It is good to know what you think the future is going to hold so you can do something about it.

 

[Deaton Design]

Everything will be inevitably digital. So if you can't progress to that your in trouble.

I disagree. Although I use digital media at times, bought from merchants on here, I think the demand for high end signs, such as sandblasted and carved, hand painted, etc. will still be a sought after commodity. My high end work has increased this year better than the last few years together. Most of my signwork is made from MDO, or signfoam, with MDO being like 85 percent of what I use for most jobs. Churches, businesses, organizations here, all still like that hand crafted look or style. I still use an overhead projector for some jobs, still use patterns at time to hand paint, and use a load of vinyl too. I dont intend to ever buy a digital printer, as there are two here in town that dont get much work already. I can buy it from others when I need it. I try and offer as much as I can to my customer, and try and be as diversified as possible. If you line yourself up to do just one type of signage, I think it will be harder to find work. I talked to a friend of mine recently who only did high end signs, mostly dimensional, and he says it had dropped off drastically. After we talked, he said he needed to add more types of signage to what he did in order to keep working during the slow times. I think thats the key. Being diversified and not just doing one type of work. Its working for me right now and I hope it continues as it has. This has been a good year so far.

The sign biz has become a total loser! I'm so happy i retired!

Good thing we dont all think that way Bob...

 

[Mark Your Space]

This is a great thread, I really appreciate everyone's input.

Regarding this statement:

"Everything will be inevitably digital. So if you can't progress to that your in trouble."

I'll agree and disagree with it. There are more and more communities or sub communities in my area that actually prohibit electronic signs (and lit up signs like channel letters). This has created a demand for more handcrafted signs in the area. Although they won't be replaced often there is additional business that will be available.

As far as replacing the digital printer I can't see that happening in the next 10 years, but perhaps some time after that. Technology changes fast and furious.

My $0.02 is that keeping up to date and changing with the change will be the key to survival.

 

[Brandon708]

I have been seeing more and more LCD digital billboards in my area lately. I just wonder how long till they replace them all. They are very nice way of advertising and can generate more money with having multiple companies rent space on it as they can just change the image every 5 seconds or so. These digital billboards completely replace the sign company that prints all these billboards. I have also seen many smaller digital signs in malls that replaces the printed posters that we would make.
Its just a matter of time before its all replaced.

So how would we transition into this type of manufacturing? Is this even considered the "sign industry"? or is it some type of Electronics Industry.

 

[Fred Weiss]

This is a great thread, I really appreciate everyone's input.

Regarding this statement:

"Everything will be inevitably digital. So if you can't progress to that your in trouble."

I'll agree and disagree with it. There are more and more communities or sub communities in my area that actually prohibit electronic signs (and lit up signs like channel letters). This has created a demand for more handcrafted signs in the area. Although they won't be replaced often there is additional business that will be available.

As far as replacing the digital printer I can't see that happening in the next 10 years, but perhaps some time after that. Technology changes fast and furious.

My $0.02 is that keeping up to date and changing with the change will be the key to survival.

What you must realize is that nothing is absolute. We're talking about trends and market share and buyer motivation. If vehicles today are 50% vinyl lettered, 30% wrapped, 10% hand painted and 10% banner equipped, and in 10 years the trend has evolved to 20% vinyl lettered, 25% wrapped, 5% hand painted and 50% banner equipped, then you've lost a lot of market share if you're not involved in vehicle banner systems. That loss of market share is now spread around all the shops so competition for a declining market intensifies and prices drop through the floor.