Future of the industry?

[Pat Whatley]

So, Signmaniac mentioned the future of the industry in a post earlier and it's had me thinking about where it's come from in 10 years and where it looks like its going. I'd like your thoughts on it, too.

-10 years ago I was getting single orders for 10 or more banners at least once a week. Today my bulk banner orders are about once a month. Five minutes on google will find them for less that $2 psf retail and that price is only going to drop. In 10 years I doubt I'll be doing any banners at all, there won't be any profit margin left in them.

-10 years ago 30% of our business was convention work. These days 10%. There are fewer conventions and less need for signs at them. Convention centers are installing television monitors on individual rooms so event signs aren't needed, just a power point file.

-In 10 years basic, bread and butter sign work will be hard to survive on. While the market for them is increasing so is the competition. Every office supply store and copy shop is in the sign business now. With the ease of subbing out work with overnight production it costs NOTHING for someone to go in the sign business. It's already happening in the printing industry. A huge print shop I deal with mentioned the other day their biggest competitor is a guy who works from home and subs everything. One guy is able to "out-produce" a company with 50 employees.

-Graphic design value is going to plummet for a majority of jobs. With the abundance of stock designs, talented designers willing to work for nothing "for exposure", design contests, and international designers working for less than a living wage in the US it's going to be hard to compete. The very talented will be able to find work from those people willing to pay the extra money for exceptional work but the vast majority of clients won't pay it and won't be able to see the difference.

-Local t-shirt printers will fall into two categories: Shops so big they don't want orders under 250 pieces or guys working from home part time. Most printed shirts will be ordered from overseas and shipped direct to you in days.

-Vehicle wraps will still break down like this: 60% suck, 30% are okay, 10% are actually effective

-Adobe will keep the Creative Cloud, everyone will adapt.

-EVERYONE will be in the "branding" industry.

It's not all doom and gloom, just how I see the market changing and things I'm thinking I need to consider. Any thoughts?

 

[Gino]

It could be worse........... :Oops:


​

If you were much younger, you'd actually have to worry about it.
​

 

[Baz]

There will always be a need for experienced installers .... As much as it is cheap and easy to order online. There is also a benefit to work with a company that is local and produces in house. If there are problems they can be easily addressed.

Many companies value a good trusted supplyer than an unknown online website ...

 

[Pat Whatley]

It could be worse...........
​

If you were much younger, you'd actually have to worry about it.
​

Dammit, I'm not in the old **** category, yet. And I don't care....if the bottom falls out of the sign business I'm loading up the International Harvester and I'm going to work for Mosh.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

and international designers working for less than a living wage in the US it's going to be hard to compete.

Don't forget here too, that they also more then likely don't have an issue with doing a design that some of us wouldn't do for legal reasons. Not just international ones mind you, but I'll see more people from India (when it comes to digitizing those are my biggest competitors) that will have Mickey designs as part of their portfolio.

Depending on how these "developing countries" handle their economic growth, it is possible that outsource from this countries might not be as cheap as it is now. It would depend on a few variables, but it is possible.

 

[ddarlak]

I imagine the same argument was presented 10,20,30,40,50,60...etc years ago and yet we are here...

the job of a sign guy is ever changing

the one thing that remains constant is there is always a need for a sign guy.

 

[Billct2]

No I don't think the same issues were present even 30 years ago when I started. There were the beefs about lowballers and crappy workmanship & design, but the technologies hadn't vhanged much for many years.
I think the one way a small/medium shop will survive as Baz mentioned is installation. There's a lot of things that can be shipped, but lots can't and how to they install them when they get them?
I for one am glad I am going to be out of it before it's completely changed.
I got into to be able to build & paint artistic stuff that do a job not baby sit printers and trouble shoot computers.

 

[Fred Weiss]

The market will continue to fractionalize. Some clients will shift to producing in house. Some will buy online or go to sideline producers working at home or in Office Depot or a UPS store or a commercial print shop. Electronics will grow in indoor programmable signs as well as the light boxes above stores in strip centers and on pylons. Etc., etc., etc.

None of that means doom and gloom ... only that the future will favor the sign makers who are better established, better funded, better business people, and better producers. Being better at design is a plus but not an answer in and of itself. The most successful will be those who understand that they are in the business of providing service and solutions. The least successful will be those who view a sign as a commodity and spend their time dealing with clients who spend the least. The majority of client dollars will still be spent with service and solution providers because they understand that the best return on their time is in doing what they do best and not trying to wear too many hats.

Look at it this way: Home Depot has three aisles of plumbing supplies yet plumbing contractors still flourish. Same for electricians, HVAC and a bunch of other trades. Auto parts and tools are widely available both in retail stores and online, yet I haven't seen an auto mechanic go out of business in years. Get your head and your business in sync with what clients actually want and you have nothing to worry about.

 

[Pat Whatley]

Look at it this way: Home Depot has three aisles of plumbing supplies yet plumbing contractors still flourish. Same for electricians, HVAC and a bunch of other trades. Auto parts and tools are widely available both in retail stores and online, yet I haven't seen an auto mechanic go out of business in years. Get your head and your business in sync with what clients actually want and you have nothing to worry about.

Plumbers, HVAC guys, and electricians all have to show that they know what they're doing before they can be licensed. Everybody and their brother thinks they're a graphic designer and there's nobody out there to stop them.

Again, I'm not screaming the sky is falling, just that business is changing like it always does.

 

[Gino]

Really, you people are treating progress like there's something wrong with it.

It wasn't all that long ago, that to get your butt to the other side of the country meant taking a boat through the Straits of Magellan up to California from New York. I don't recall people complaining when they put the Panama Canal in and even now.... planes and trains can get there in a matter of hours. You can go to almost any street corner and buy groceries and gasoline for your car... granted the counter person will most likely barely speak English, but you don't have to grow your own stuff.

It's called progress and you wanna keep things just as happy and honky-dory as they have been for a long time. You don't like change, you don't want to share, you don't want to learn new things beyond your comprehension........... ha, you really are all starting to sound old. I don't wanna this, I don't need that and I surely won't do this.................

Get a grip and make way for the new generation. Either roll with the punches or get outta the way.............
​

 

[David Wright]

There is an expression that all change isn't progress, and all progress isn't forward.
It is a lie we use and pull mixed analogies of so called progress in other areas. It is not all for the betterment of us, it just is, and we live with it.

Back in the day (70's and even 80's) an average wage was much higher than it is now. If you use the auto factory wage or union wage of those years, few come even close to it now. $10, $12, or even $14 an hour is what most young people get now, even the college educated ones.

So just because skilled sign people with much experience lack some more skills that will allow them to adapt to a changing market, they should accept their fate as part of progress? Maybe accept it is all you can do, but blame yourself for your fate. This is way to socially darwinian for me.

 

[John Butto]

This will be in the US Grimco catalog in 5 years. Or you could order them now through AlSabid signs located in a remote region of Syria.

 

[visual800]

I understand basically what Pat is saying.this whole sign biz has been a wild ride. I started out hand lettering, then got a vinyl cutter, then moved to monuments, indoor ada signage, pylon signs and channel letters.

I kept having to reinvent myself to stay ahead to where the money was and to break away from the cheapa$$ printing companies and their glorified printing. And thats fine with me.

I think there will be tons more LED screens which I despise, I wish they would outlaw them and those obnoxious LED BILLBOARDS, I despise those at night especially. i hate it when a company chooses to let an RED LED message board overpower their normal signage.

As Pat mentioned being a graphic artist makes about as much sense as taking typing lessons. Everyone can type thanks to texting and uhanks to compter programs they are designers.

You wont have a need to own a printer or any fabricating machinery as the ones that fabricate will be cheaper and cheaper, which is fine with me. The future is interesting but it doesnt scare me. I just keep reinventing.

 

[Pat Whatley]

The future is interesting but it doesnt scare me. I just keep reinventing.

That's because you have a thriving man whore business with all those Cloverdale Barbies to fall back on.

 

[kanini]

If LED screens is the future as everyone says you'll soon be able to order a roll and throw it in the vinyl cutter, cut to size and slap it on the side of a van. The industry is changing but don't you think 3M, Oracal, Avery etc. will find ANY products at all that we signmakers could use to earn a buck??

 

[Jillbeans]

From where I sit, signs are pretty much dead.
Had to get a real job again after a brief boom last fall into this summer
(but what was really like it used to be every day 10 years ago)
I have so many hacks with plotters and even printers within a 5-10 mile radius of me it's not even funny. There's even a guy who works at my new job who does "stickers" on the side.

I recently got a job that I can do but I don't want to do, my mentor is dying and can no longer paint pictorials. So I will be filling in for him here and there (full service shop who is also struggling due to these hacks)

When I stared almost 30 years ago there was more than enough work to go around whether you painted or had a plotter. Now we are all fighting for a slice of a very small pie. I have raised my prices gradually all along, and I refuse to lower them. They are not really that high, but for example the last two times I bid $750 on something, a hack and a wholesaler did the job for $250. There is more than that in the materials alone, I don't know how they did it. Of course, the hack's 4'x8' looks like hell, and I'm sure the wholesaler didn't use 3M reflective like I would have.

Two of the hacks are members here (one was banned) I know one took down my business cards at the local hardware, but recently an established shop I've known since the 90s did the same thing. At my new "real" job I saw a "graphix" company pull in driving an absolutely awful monstrosity of a wrapped van that looked like someone barfed out trufire, skulls, and faux beveled chrome lettering. I can't believe customers would settle for that crap. It was already faded and really badly designed. I think they are a member here too.

I'm on my way out. I still do painted signs whenever I can, but I have decided to no longer even do coroplast signs, I will leave them to the bottom feeders. Banners? They can have those jobs too. I'm only doing things that are worth doing. In my opinion, I have never made anything that I flubbed on or jerry-rigged or was not well designed and used quality materials. (unless it was nephew art and I can't help that) But people ONLY care about price. Lots of people buy online now, too. Someone recently told me "If you don't want to make white coro signs with red lettering...DON'T!" I don't.

I have been doing logo design when I can, and I have sold more logos this year than any other. I design layouts for other sign shops online (love it) But I am totally burned out on dealing with clueless tire-kickers who have no idea what a good sign is. I still do cut vinyl and I do sub out prints and bizcards.

Saw the sign painter movie this week with a few sign friends, it did light a fire in me again to paint signs. I am going to try selling painted novelty signs online. It's such a wonderful gift to be able to paint a sign, and I am not going to forget I have that gift. I think that people have been seeing ugly cheap signs for so long that they think that's all there is. I truly believe that there is a younger generation of wanna-be sign painters out there, and I really feel that there will be a small renaissance of painted signs and murals in the future.

Our township has just started to allow digital signs. Unfortunately most of those can be programmed by the business owner to flash too-bright ugly illegible messes. I think people around here still perceive wraps as being too expensive. They are still fairly few and far between. Neon has had a small upswing, our neon guy has been busy and that's nice to see.

This industry has totally changed since I started. I'm not saying that back in the day, when everyone was so secretive, that it was the best way. Technology and sign forums can be really great and helpful. But I would never advise anyone to go into this trade unless they wanted to learn something super specialized such as neon or installs of lighted signs. Because most of the hacks thankfully are still afraid to mess with electricity.

I've gone through a long time feeling angry and bitter, maybe too bitter at times but I love my trade and am protective over it. Part of me still gets angry that a trained professional works four days a week for $8 an hour when she was used to getting a minimum of $75 an hour for sign work. I make in 32 hours what I charge to letter two truck doors. The other part of me thinks...let the bottom feeders fight over the tidbits that still remain.

Pat, I really have no idea what the future holds for our trade. I expect that it's going to go to hell in a handbasket.
Love....Jill

 

[SlightlyChilled]

Could be worse you could "Need a ladder"

 

[Marlene]

have to agree with most of the doom and gloom. who many sites are out there now, some of them franchise type sign shops where a customer can "design" their own sign? this puts out into the public substandard looking signs and it has become the norm, not a few here and there. people also have the McDonalds/Walmart attitude where everything has to be fast and cheap. the only place left for signs will be high end resorts and theme parks. main streets will no longer reflect the area, they will all look the same and they will all look like they were designed by a 10 year old.

 

[Craig Sjoquist]

As the market gets more digital such as LEDs for anything flat or some curve mainly for the business that still have stores.

The hand made advertisements will become more popular & demand will hold strong, I see the younger generations wanting to learn because digital is way beyond affording set up cost to learn all, such as printing.

As far as wraps go it's growth will affect law & will change government to limit it, after all they want want full control.

Also see most of the sign industry going low wage semi skilled work lol lol lol

 

[BALLPARK]

The future is in LED/LCD digital displays. Static prints will be dropping as tech grows cheaper. Then we will see marketing firms no longer contacting sign companies as often as they can just push a button and update every location for their client.

Digital displays will be embed into storefront glass, mirrors, and pretty much anything else like a wall. It will be cool to see the tech, but it will not be good for the ol' printers.

 

[francisco2525]

Life is not easy....

I have been in the printing and Graphics industry for 9 years, before that I was a teacher for 7 years, before that I went to U.C Berkeley...my point is that no matter what we do in life, it will be difficult. One thing I have learned over the past 8 years in my business is that you will always have competition, and the more you worry about it, the more it will hold you back. Life is not easy and at least you don't have a lion chasing your butt trying to kill you. Why worry about the future--the what ifs in life, tomorrow something can happen to us and we can die...tomorrow is not given. There will always be a need for our services 1. Some people are not smart 2. We are a service society and many people would rather pay a professional to do it than do it themselves (We still have a lot of Americans that don't use computers).

The reality is that we can have 10 great customers, but an idiot can come in and tells us that at build a sign they can get a 4 by 8 banner for 60 dollars and our week is ruin and we start acting as if the world is going to end. It wont, because there will always be a need for our services because experience counts. A lot of people understand and are willing to pay the extra to get a better product and better customer service.

So if you do want to be here in ten or twenty years develop better relationships with your clients and those that have not, you need to upgrade our design skills because there is nothing worse than giving a client something that graphically looks like junk.

We are all in the same boat because we are all sales people, and many times we don't know who our next customer will be, but the funny thing is that in most cases we always get new clients and in the end every thing turns out okay.

 

[visual800]

That's because you have a thriving man whore business with all those Cloverdale Barbies to fall back on.

whatever, I wish! I could be boffin' with a big time district attorneys wife while he was jetting around....sweet!