Anyone seeing a slowdown due to coronavirus?

[WildWestDesigns]

The people who recover from COVID-19 do so based on their state of health and immune system strength.

This is the case with anything. The same demographics that are typically at risk with viruses, illnesses that we deal with regularly are the same high risk ones here. The majority of people should have been exercising these precautions long ago, that way it doesn't feel like such a foreign concept.

Seasonal flu does kill tens of thousands of Americans every year, but that's in a ratio with tens of millions of cases. Seasonal flu has a mortality rate around .05%, which translates to a ratio of 1 death out of 2000 people infected. COVID-19 is killing 2-4 people out of every 100 infected.

That have been confirmed. That's the thing. How many really are there out there that haven't been officially tested positive. Do we have them all or are there others that didn't die that might lower that ratio for this latest threat (now, it could still be deadlier then the flu, but the question is, how much is it really deadlier)?

And the coronavirus appears to be more contagious and have a long incubation period, making the threat of community spread more serious. We really don't need the coronavirus infecting people on the same mass scale as seasonal flu.

I have read reports from doctors that while this appears to be deadlier then the flu, it seems to be not as easily transmissible as the flu (not yet anyway, it could always morph into something else). If it wasn't, containing it would be impossible? We don't actually try to contain the flu, because that's pretty close to impossible. It does appear to be possible in this case. If it wasn't possible, then typically they are stopped due to the death of the carrier happening quicker then the next person getting infected.

Now, with all the media is now and also in an election year, not helping things either and the hysteria going on.

 

[Notarealsignguy]

We do try to contain the flu, there is actually a big push to wash hands, wear masks and use hand sanitizer during outbreaks.
This is more contagious than the flu, not sure where youre getting that info from.
The RO for the flu 1.3, for this its 2-3. Thats the number of people each infected person is expected to infect.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

We do try to contain the flu, there is actually a big push to wash hands, wear masks and use hand sanitizer during outbreaks.

That's not containment. True containment comes from using draconian measures of isolation. That's still very much left up to the individual person. And we all know how well that goes.

This is more contagious than the flu, not sure where youre getting that info from.

That's what Bobby was saying:

And the coronavirus appears to be more contagious and have a long incubation period, making the threat of community spread more serious.

I do think at first it was thought that, but like with any new "thing" as more information comes in, more is able to (hopefully) be gleaned from it.

 

[MI Bearcat]

Just received our first notice of an event postponed due to coronavirus. Had an order for 10 banner stands and a 20ft backdrop cancelled/postponed. Convention has been rescheduled in September.

 

[Bobby H]

That have been confirmed. That's the thing. How many really are there out there that haven't been officially tested positive. Do we have them all or are there others that didn't die that might lower that ratio for this latest threat (now, it could still be deadlier then the flu, but the question is, how much is it really deadlier)?

Scientists are applying the same kind of metrics they're applying to flu cases. The overwhelming majority of people who are affected by the flu do not see a doctor or do anything to document they had the flu. Still the medical community has enough experience dealing with the flu to have a good idea on total average ratio of infections to hospitalizations (1 in 100) and deaths (1 in 2000). Those numbers do vary a bit based on the flu strain.

If there was really a lot more unconfirmed cases of coronavirus transmission to water down the mortality figures we would be seeing a lot more "hot spots" of infection popping up all over the place, if not areas of truly widespread infection. The hospitalizations and deaths would be spread out far wider geographically rather than confined to a few hot spots. The virus is spreading, but so far authorities around the world have been very aggressive trying to contain it.

We do try to contain the flu, there is actually a big push to wash hands, wear masks and use hand sanitizer during outbreaks. This is more contagious than the flu, not sure where youre getting that info from. The RO for the flu 1.3, for this its 2-3. Thats the number of people each infected person is expected to infect.

The outbreak in the Westchester part of metro New York City came from just one lawyer. He spread it to his family and other people who got close enough to him during his commute. Reproduction numbers of influenza vary widely from one strain to the next. Medical science has many decades of experience studying and treating flu viruses. Obviously that's not the case with this novel coronavirus. They really don't have a scientific reproduction number established on it yet.

Regarding face masks, the only people who should be wearing masks are medical professionals and people who are already sick. Medically rated safety masks are the only ones that are really effective, but they must be specially fitted. People who are sick with colds, the flu or other worse conditions should really be staying at home. But face masks can catch most of the particulates they're liable to cough out of their mouths.

As to which is more contagious, the flu or novel coronavirus, it's not hard to find legit news reports saying this coronavirus appears to be more contagious. Flu viruses are typically picked up from surfaces by the hands and enter the body when people touch their faces. This coronavirus has shown it can be transmitted via airbone particles as well as picked up from surfaces. The incubation period for the flu is 2-5 days; coronavirus incubation is up to 14 days. Unlike the flu there are no vaccines for the coronavirus. And the only people that may have any immunity to it are people who have already been exposed and recovered from it; however some people in China have appeared to recover from it only to fall ill again.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

If there was really a lot more unconfirmed cases of coronavirus transmission to water down the mortality figures we would be seeing a lot more "hot spots" of infection popping up all over the place, if not areas of truly widespread infection.

That would require notification of some type, but testing hadn't been done (now, they may do presumptive positive, but that's something else). I would be talking about those that didn't bother notification at all and pulled through (now if they didn't pull through, then there would be means of testing), but for those that do, but don't see testing of any type, which could very well be possible, that could skew results. Now, it's quite possible that here is nothing outside the contained (roughly) pockets, but it's quit hard to say either way, especially with the wide duration for incubation.

Then again, can't totally rule out the possibility of a "typhoid mary" as well.

coronavirus incubation is up to 14 days.

Last I heard, it could be as quick as 2 days or up to 14 days. That's a huge swath for incubation time frame.

 

[iPrintStuff]

Good news! Just got my first “how quick can you make “x” roller banners about coronavirus?” Phone call!

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

Wikipedia source

 

[Joel golden]

Oil just dropped 30% .. Haven't seen it at $30 a barrel in a long time... Not good for Texas

Just Saudi and Russia in a pissing contest... will probably be this way for a week or two. Neither can let it stand at this price, it’s below break even

 

[Joel golden]

Wikipedia source

View attachment 146007

That will drastically drop once more testing actually starts. People with mild flu symptoms get tested and it’s positive, the mortality rate will drop like a rock.

 

[Joel golden]

Here you go!

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

I'll mention this observation. I'm used to ordering from S365 and I have noticed them finishing stuff much earlier then usual.

 

[ams]

I am very busy, no slow down

 

[FatCat]

Not so much of a slowdown yet, but just got news from a big client that they are not allowing vendors/contractors on-site for non-emergency work until after March.

We have several big wall murals to install this year and were supposed to go this week to the first site...no telling how long before they allow us in. I've got over 2,000 sq ft of printed material now sitting here in my shop that I am just sitting on...I fear this could be a growing trend.

 

[dypinc]

3900 americans died from h1n1 and it didn’t discriminate on age.

What the hell is going on here? Where was the panic then? Why doesn’t some reporter ask that question so we can seriously understand why this time we need to take such extreme measures that it warrants blowing up the economy, devastating small businesses, and causing massive layoffs.

 

[rjssigns]

Going to Door County to work on boats next week. Couple peeks of sun, some warmer weather and folks want to be on the water.
Had six on the list, finished one now I have seven to do. With math like that I'll never finish them all.

 

[Bobby H]

What the hell is going on here? Where was the panic then?

There was panic back then and even worse panic in previous pandemics (unintentional alliteration there). Epidemiologists, doctors and scientists are very concerned about the potential of what COVID-19 could do if it is not contained. Just because this new virus hasn't already killed millions of people doesn't mean it isn't capable of doing just that. The big, historical example is the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic. That was one of the first H1N1 "bird flu" strains documented. And it killed tens of millions of people across the globe, including over half a million Americans.

The last thing we need is the general public merely going into panic mode. I'm still trying to make sense of why crowds of people are making a run for toilet paper. What needs to be happening is the formulation of a better overall game plan at stopping the spread. The game plan has to include everyone. Every individual needs to be taking their own preventive steps and doing so consistently. Right now we're failing miserably in that regard because there is so much conflicting information (even politically partisan info) being given to the public. That's being compounded by so many people who don't think this bug is any threat at all. It's no different than the flu, so I'm going to go about everything business as usual. The government and medical personnel can do only so much. The rest of the public has to get with the program rather than thinking someone else is going to do all the heavy lifting for them.

 

[Stacey K]

3 cases in the adjoining county to mine overnight. I just ran to the store for some note pads, I took a stroll around - they are completely out of sanitizing wipes and sanitizer. 3/4 full on TP and paper towel yet.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

I had an environmental science prof that used to be concerned about the potential of mosquitoes from carrying the HIV. They were just one mutation away from their body temp to being where the virus could survive in them to act as carriers. That's a scary thought.

Life is very, very fragile. Could give yourself hypertension just thinking about all the potential of everything that could kill us. I'm not trying to mitigate the dangers of this or any other disease, but there is really only so much that one could take and still be willing to go out the front door.




Gotta love election year where people are more concerned with the optics of the situation versus actually saying what needs to be said. Then those that need the bad optics to get their party the upper leg with the election spin their own take on things.

People don't want to go into overall panic mode (even though we are hardwired for that type of response), but if people aren't given accurate information, how are they going to be doing their part? There needs to be consensus from the ones that people look to for information and there isn't (I'm reading different opinions from the state health department people here compared to others). I don't know if some of this is in order to help keep the public from going off the rails or not or just for political bolstering.

Sure, the general public outnumbers those that would be in the know and therefor, it depends on the general public with them doing their share, but if they aren't given accurate info (or conflicting info at best), how are they expected to do what it is necessary?

Of course, if there is a clear and immediate health danger that everyone agrees on, aggressive containment measures should be taken and not just left to the inclinations of the general public.

 

[Bobby H]

I can understand the medical professionals and emergency management people being careful about the narrative they choose in delivering information to the public about a given public safety crisis. But they still have to provide timely, consistent and accurate information.

That hasn't been happening with the novel coronavirus situation. The public is getting fed a barrage of conflicting information and even misinformation from government sources and media outlets. And then some details have been classified, which is a new one concerning medical information. It obviously seems politically motivated. Certain people at the top appear to be more concerned about the swings of the stock market than the safety of the general public. When government people are more concerned about "optics" than they are of being more forthcoming with accurate information they're directly undermining what it means to live in a free society.