Recession

[MikePatterson]

We are busy with customers that I usually turn away. Our big fleet customers are really hurting and in that area we are too. We are off by more than 150 vehicles this year than last year. The chip shortage is what they are blaming. Nissan isn't shipping NV vans anymore, at least thats what we are being told. I cant get F150s or F250s in any regular numbers. We just shift gears when one thing slows another will pick up. I am seeing more companies tighten up on their budgets lately probably from uncertainty in their markets and the price increases we have had to implement. I dont mind a little sticker shock here and there but its been more regular lately.

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

Our company has had some long stretches of being really busy. We had one slow-down earlier this year which thankfully didn't last long. Next thing we knew we were covered up with work. Rampant inflation has me pretty concerned customer activity could drop off to nothing without warning.

Around the time of the dot-com bubble burst period, late 1999-early 2000, our company hit a brutal slow patch and struggled well into 2001. The strange thing is once the war got going business started getting back more back to normal. The housing market here in Oklahoma wasn't gamed up in the mid 2000's like it was in so many other parts of the country, so we didn't get all that badly affected when the housing bubble burst. My IRA took one hell of a beating. But business stayed pretty solid.

This time is different. Housing prices and rent prices here have grown ridiculous, at least in terms of local income/wage scales. I feel like we're in an unsustainable financial situation. The sign industry is part of the advertising industry overall. When an economy starts sliding into recession one of the first places that gets hit is spending on advertising.

We're trying to get projects completed and billed out as fast as we can to keep positive momentum going. The supply chain issues are very frustrating. Projects with LED variable message displays get held up because of long delivery times. We're having to wait upwards of 20 weeks on some units. Inflation on very materials makes it harder to bid jobs. Someone with an old bid from a year ago who is actually interested in buying now has to get the project re-bid because that old price is no good. That just adds another possible variable that could feed into customers not buying.

Who wants to advertise when everyone is so covered up? It's when you slow down that advertising starts looking better,

 

[Johnny Best]

Nose to the grindstone, make hay while the sun shines was my motto throughout the years. If you have talent you can always hustle a buck to make a living. Stay healthy so as not to miss work

 

[Notarealsignguy]

If we do end up in a recession, the used equipment market will come alive again. The last decade it's been cheap to borrow money so people have just been buying new. We used to sell used equipment all the time but now it's very far and few between. Once that cheap money isn't an option anymore, used equipment is going to have value again. Not to mention, recessions tend to trim the low quality shops from the bush. All those people undercutting prices to steal your customers will be selling their equipment to pay the bills.

We've been waiting for it. Thought it was gonna start 6-7 years ago. We also sell used equipment. Luckily we have sold a lot this year but only because there's big lead times on new trucks. Problem now is we have very little inventory because we can't find much used stuff to buy at a rational price.

 

[Bobby H]

The fundamentals are solid, unemployment historically low, high numbers of job openings, labor participation is high.

People can have "jobs" yet still be flat broke. Really, I cannot stand how the financial press refers to "jobs" and unemployment levels in such generic terms. There are giant differences between great paying jobs, decent paying jobs and jobs that don't pay squat. But these financial experts count them all the same way, at least in their reports to the public. Someone making $9 per hour and scheduled only 20 hours per week is technically employed. But they're not going to be living on their own with that wage, much less contributing to the economy (or the tax base).

70% of our economy is driven by consumer spending. And a bunch of that is discretionary purchases, stuff other than food, fuel and housing. I design signs for a lot more than just grocery stores, gas stations and realtors. Too many people are seeing their paychecks getting eaten up by the basics. Wage scales in this part of Oklahoma aren't high. Not only am I concerned about a lot of local residents getting stretched to the breaking point, but I also worry about the effect that can have on local businesses. Continual customer traffic is not a guarantee.

Anyway, we're still busy. And I'm really thankful for it. I just pray it lasts.

 

[victor bogdanov]

We are busy with customers that I usually turn away. Our big fleet customers are really hurting and in that area we are too. We are off by more than 150 vehicles this year than last year. The chip shortage is what they are blaming. Nissan isn't shipping NV vans anymore, at least thats what we are being told. I cant get F150s or F250s in any regular numbers. We just shift gears when one thing slows another will pick up. I am seeing more companies tighten up on their budgets lately probably from uncertainty in their markets and the price increases we have had to implement. I dont mind a little sticker shock here and there but its been more regular lately.

i wanted to order a sprinter or transit van in crew or passenger, couldn't find one and dealers say the manufacturers not accepting orders. reading van forums trying to get some info and people are saying orders they placed December last year for 2022 models just got canceled. not accepting 2023 orders yet if ever. All the dealership lots are only 20% full. This is not a good sign. Also know lots of people not getting 40 hours per week due to their companies slowing down

 

[Stacey K]

I notice when small businesses begin to slow, they offer deals or coupons. When I start to see that, then I will assume things are slowing.

The local garage door guy got a full time job. He was waiting so long for garage doors he didn't have enough work for a couple months. He still does them on the side but, what a shame.

I have to say I'm noticing the price hikes at the grocery store more and more. Having a garden helps, we have salad with supper every night and I haven't had to buy lettuce or peppers for a while now lol Really looking forward to nice harvest this year to squirrel away for winter.

 

[Notarealsignguy]

People can have "jobs" yet still be flat broke. Really, I cannot stand how the financial press refers to "jobs" and unemployment levels in such generic terms. There are giant differences between great paying jobs, decent paying jobs and jobs that don't pay squat. But these financial experts count them all the same way, at least in their reports to the public. Someone making $9 per hour and scheduled only 20 hours per week is technically employed. But they're not going to be living on their own with that wage, much less contributing to the economy (or the tax base).

70% of our economy is driven by consumer spending. And a bunch of that is discretionary purchases, stuff other than food, fuel and housing. I design signs for a lot more than just grocery stores, gas stations and realtors. Too many people are seeing their paychecks getting eaten up by the basics. Wage scales in this part of Oklahoma aren't high. Not only am I concerned about a lot of local residents getting stretched to the breaking point, but I also worry about the effect that can have on local businesses. Continual customer traffic is not a guarantee.

Anyway, we're still busy. And I'm really thankful for it. I just pray it lasts.

I agree to a certain extent but big jobs follow small jobs. Living within your means is also a concept that many people have chosen to ignore.
Another issue that hinders people is job hopping. You have always had to pay your dues to move up and learn the company but now everyone wants it right now.

 

[Bobby H]

I agree to a certain extent but big jobs follow small jobs. Living within your means is also a concept that many people have chosen to ignore.

Not everyone who is broke or struggling is wasting their money on frivolous stuff. The rising prices of rent, food, fuel, etc are factors taking a big enough bite out of the finances of people with low and/or fixed incomes.

But lack of "financial literacy" is a big problem. Too many people don't read credit card statements to see just how much extra they're being charged to carry over balances. Or they get into even worse trouble with predatory pay day loans companies. Like many military towns we have quite a few pay day loans stores here. I'd rather put a gun to my head than take out a pay day loan.

Another issue that hinders people is job hopping. You have always had to pay your dues to move up and learn the company but now everyone wants it right now.

Around here there are people job-hopping (or just moving away from this region) because their previous gig was paying starvation wages and/or scheduling part time hours with no sign the situation was going to improve. I agree new employees need to "pay their dues." But it's not practical to expect someone to take a job that doesn't pay enough to survive in a town with a supposedly low cost of living. Oklahoma's minimum wage is still under $8 per hour. There are employers here who expect people to work for that kind of pay, even in part-time/no-benefits status, and somehow survive on that. Then they gripe, "no one wants to work," when they can't fill those open positions.

 

[Notarealsignguy]

Not everyone who is broke or struggling is wasting their money on frivolous stuff. The rising prices of rent, food, fuel, etc are factors taking a big enough bite out of the finances of people with low and/or fixed incomes.

But lack of "financial literacy" is a big problem. Too many people don't read credit card statements to see just how much extra they're being charged to carry over balances. Or they get into even worse trouble with predatory pay day loans companies. Like many military towns we have quite a few pay day loans stores here. I'd rather put a gun to my head than take out a pay day loan.



Around here there are people job-hopping (or just moving away from this region) because their previous gig was paying starvation wages and/or scheduling part time hours with no sign the situation was going to improve. I agree new employees need to "pay their dues." But it's not practical to expect someone to take a job that doesn't pay enough to survive in a town with a supposedly low cost of living. Oklahoma's minimum wage is still under $8 per hour. There are employers here who expect people to work for that kind of pay, even in part-time/no-benefits status, and somehow survive on that. Then they gripe, "no one wants to work," when they can't fill those open positions.

While I do agree with you on all points, I think you are ignoring (or have not seen) the other side that the employers see and that is lack of motivation, lack of detail and lack of respect for their jobs. Most small/medium sized businesses are ready and willing to hand out a lot of money and perks to the right people right now and the people are not stepping up. They talk but don't produce. There is a very entitled mentality out there with the available workforce. We are not all competing to attract 100% of the working population right now. I'd venture to say 90-95% are not hopping and are reaping the benefits of staying put. It's the last 10% that are a problem. We are all trying to hire the available and those are the ones complaining and taking advantage of the situation at the same time. Anyone that has came to me in the past 2 years has only been concerned with what's in it for them. They want schedules to accommodate them, to hell with what you need, and $5/hr more than they are currently making. I need to leave at 3 to get my kids, weekends are out, how much vacation do I get, every Tuesday I'll be late because my wife takes my car hope that's ok, I'd prefer to start at 8 instead of 7, how long is lunch, what tools do you provide me cuz I don't own any, is it hot in this shop, I don't do well on ladders, I'm on probation, I drive but don't have a license, my girlfriend gives me a ride etc etc etc. There are 2 sides to this I promise you.

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

While I do agree with you on all points, I think you are ignoring (or have not seen) the other side that the employers see and that is lack of motivation, lack of detail and lack of respect for their jobs. Most small/medium sized businesses are ready and willing to hand out a lot of money and perks to the right people right now and the people are not stepping up. They talk but don't produce. There is a very entitled mentality out there with the available workforce. We are not all competing to attract 100% of the working population right now. I'd venture to say 90-95% are not hopping and are reaping the benefits of staying put. It's the last 10% that are a problem. We are all trying to hire the available and those are the ones complaining and taking advantage of the situation at the same time. Anyone that has came to me in the past 2 years has only been concerned with what's in it for them. They want schedules to accommodate them, to hell with what you need, and $5/hr more than they are currently making. I need to leave at 3 to get my kids, weekends are out, how much vacation do I get, every Tuesday I'll be late because my wife takes my car hope that's ok, I'd prefer to start at 8 instead of 7, how long is lunch, what tools do you provide me cuz I don't own any, is it hot in this shop, I don't do well on ladders, I'm on probation, I drive but don't have a license, my girlfriend gives me a ride etc etc etc. There are 2 sides to this I promise you.

Don't go after the 10% that are available... Go after the 90% that is employed.

 

[Stacey K]

I have to laugh at Notareal...he's on point!

My BF's son was helping for a while, he did pretty well but I would remind him the night before to show up at 9 and he wouldn't show up. Get home and "oh I thought you meant tomorrow" - wouldn't answer his phone or my texts but was on his phone all day playing games - really pissed me off when I had a trailer sitting here. I stopped asking him and have a 15 year old girl now. I paid her $20 per hour cash. He was pissed because I only paid him $15. Well...SHOW UP.

Then he worked at Walmart, an 8 hr shift and sat in the bathroom for 3 hrs the first night. A few weeks later he got caught sleeping in his car another 3 hrs. He then pretended to go to work because he got fired - I caught him in his car by accident one night. Of course I'm not a rat, but the dummy told the other boys thinking it was funny. They didn't think so and one ratted him out to dad last night. So, he got it from both his older brothers and his dad...lots of yelling. It was a quiet night after that LOL

Anyway, the point is I told MY boys even though right now your employer is grateful and begging you to come in, you must do so. Show up when expected and work hard. You will be the one standing if there's a recession. I hear all sorts of stories of bad workers. The employers will delight in them being the first to be laid off or given less hours. There's also something called pride. Take pride in cleaning the toilet if that's what your job is, be the best in all you do.

 

[garyroy]

Who wants to advertise when everyone is so covered up? It's when you slow down that advertising starts looking better,

Then there's the old conundrum...
" Why should I advertise, I can't even do the work I have now"
Then
" Advertise, are you kidding, I don't have any work, I can't afford to advertise"

It's a cycle.

 

[Johnny Best]

Then he worked at Walmart, an 8 hr shift and sat in the bathroom for 3 hrs the first night. A few weeks later he got caught sleeping in his car another 3 hrs. He then pretended to go to work because he got fired - I caught him in his car by accident one night. Of course I'm not a rat, but the dummy told the other boys thinking it was funny. They didn't think so and one ratted him out to dad last night. So, he got it from both his older brothers and his dad...lots of yelling. It was a quiet night after that LOL

This is what I mean by having talent and turning a buck. Starts taking spy pics in spy mode with his IPhone of the fat chicks who come in WalMart. It's Wisconsin, the cheese capitol! He starts a website with these ladies and he will rake it in. I know it has already been done but he is getting paid by WalMart at the same time and his interest stays high waiting for the heffers to come strolling in.

 

[Bobby H]

While I do agree with you on all points, I think you are ignoring (or have not seen) the other side that the employers see and that is lack of motivation, lack of detail and lack of respect for their jobs.

I've personally seen plenty of $#it-bird quality employees come and go even in my own workplace over the past nearly 30 years. But I'm not going to go along with painting all employees or all people from a certain generation with a broad brush stroke. Good employees and bad employees are nothing new.

One thing I do see more of these days is a lot of open animosity, a lot of us versus them nonsense. Our whole nation is eaten up with that bile on multiple fronts. On this topic, the us versus them equation gets boiled down to business owners versus employees. Some people believe if you're not a business owner and are working for someone else then you're some kind of loser or parasite who should be viewed with contempt. Likewise there are workers who expect everything under the sun promised to them regardless if they've earned it or if the company can afford it. I think big business perpetuates a lot of this animosity. The fact of the matter is very few businesses at all can survive without employees. They need bodies to get the work done. I think small businesses do a better job at maintaining the manager-employee relationship because it's a lot more personal.

As bad as it seems right now, with some sectors struggling to fill open jobs, I expect that situation to get much worse in the coming decades. I'm deeply worried how the situation could be in 20 years when I'll supposedly be eligible to retire and start drawing Social Security. Right now the US is turning parenthood into an extremely expensive life style choice, affordable to fewer and fewer couples. Birth rates have been falling and will continue to do so regardless of a certain recent court ruling. That trend will lead to a shrinking working-age population, shrinking tax base and way too many old people to support. Demographic imbalance is a really serious problem. This isn't a "replacement theory" trope, TFR is dropping for American-born women of all races. Right now there is a strong stance against immigration, but in another 20 years we might be begging for any immigrants we can get. But in that future who is going to want to emigrate to a country that is flat broke?

 

[Stacey K]

You don't have to start working after school or college. You can live in your parents basement and travel for a year...a kid would be an inconvenience, much less two.

I notice the amount of people who have dogs vs. kids is astronomical vs. when I grew up. People bring their mangey mutts in my shop all the time and expect me to oooh and ahhh them. People seem to be going crazy these days. More attention to dogs than to kids.

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

My daughter is 10 and wants to own a doggie daycare when she grows up. My wife is making that a reality and is inviting a dog to come over today for "daycare". My daughter posted videos of her training our poodle and doing tricks and everyone in the neighborhood wants to bring their dog by my house. I'm going to be living in a kennel soon.

 

[Boudica]

My daughter is 10 and wants to own a doggie daycare when she grows up. My wife is making that a reality and is inviting a dog to come over today for "daycare". My daughter posted videos of her training our poodle and doing tricks and everyone in the neighborhood wants to bring their dog by my house. I'm going to be living in a kennel soon.

Notareal is going to bring his Rooster by for some discipline training.

 

[Johnny Best]

I had four kids when it was not fashionabl. First one in 1975 and I think recession came about in that period or a little afterwards. I ran my own business for a long time and now collect SS. I just let it roll over every month.

 

[Bobby H]

You don't have to start working after school or college. You can live in your parents basement and travel for a year...a kid would be an inconvenience, much less two.

I think kids who want to take a year off after school to go back-packing across Europe must come from families with money. The syndrome happening here is kids who are working, want to leave home, but can't afford to do so. Not unless they can land a much better paying job -which is often going to be in another city. How can someone find a wife, much less even think about having children someday, if he's still stuck living with his parents? That's one of the big things really hurting small towns and rural communities. Their young people aren't going to stay there if the towns don't offer any opportunity.

Moving to the big city isn't always a great solution either. Large cities have more opportunity, but also much higher living costs. There is a tremendous shortage of apartments and smaller "starter homes" for young single people without kids (one of our faster growing demographics).

Co-habitation is a growing trend. It's either a multi-generation household with kids, parents and grandparents living under the same roof, with maybe an aunt or uncle thrown in for good measure. Or it's unrelated people sharing the same house or apartment. One of the houses next door to me has two couples with kids, plus a grandmother living there.

I notice the amount of people who have dogs vs. kids is astronomical vs. when I grew up. People bring their mangey mutts in my shop all the time and expect me to oooh and ahhh them. People seem to be going crazy these days. More attention to dogs than to kids.

I like animals, but I don't have any pets because I'm single and I don't want to leave a dog or cat stuck alone in a house all day while I'm at work. That would just be kind of cruel.

I really don't understand people who acquire pets when they can barely afford to take care of them or they're not responsible enough to own a pet. It pisses me off how people will get a dog or cat they see at the local flea market then they dump it off at the animal shelter the first time it becomes an inconvenience or needs some kind of medical care.