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Recession

Boudica

I'm here for Educational Purposes
I like animals, but I don't have any pets because I'm single and I don't want to leave a dog or cat stuck alone in a house all day while I'm at work. That would just be kind of cruel.

I really don't understand people who acquire pets when they can barely afford to take care of them or they're not responsible enough to own a pet. It pisses me off how people will get a dog or cat they see at the local flea market then they dump it off at the animal shelter the first time it becomes an inconvenience or needs some kind of medical care.
Don't get me started on all the animals who were adopted when we were all on lockdown - and now that people are going back to work, they are taking them back to the shelter. The shelters here are at capacity, and they are lowing the cost of adoption, and there are getting creative trying to get these poor animals homes. My daughter also wants to run a doggie daycare, and would adopt all of them if she could - but we are keeping it to the one rescue dog we already have.

...there are a lot of homeless people here (it's a huge problem), and at least half of them have dogs. You can guarantee they are not current on their shots or wellness checkups.
 

Bobby H

Arial Sucks.
I have more respect for a homeless person that keeps a dog with him than I do someone that has a home but dumps his dog off at the pound for superficial reasons. The homeless person at least cares for the dog and is somehow trying to make the situation work (still, it's not a great situation). Other more heart-less people see pets as an item they can throw away at any time. A couple days ago here in town the police busted some guy on drug distribution charges, but also charged him with felony animal cruelty because he had a litter of malnourished pit bull puppies living in their own waste. I guess the puppies were another "side hustle" for this clown. Animal cruelty really gets my goat.
 

Gino

Premium Subscriber
Regardless of how destitute one is within their house, on the street or wherever...... that is no reason to be cruel to another person, but to do it to animals, that's a whole different ballgame. Dogs, cats, ferrets, birds, fish, whatever..................... being cruel towards them should be punishable by shooting the person in the head and then killing them.
 

netsol

Active Member
The fundamentals are solid, unemployment historically low, high numbers of job openings, labor participation is high. Everyone has an opinion especially now when they can just regurgitate whatever headline they read. The financial ones are the WORST for click bait.
"unemployment is historically low????"
millions have not returned to work from covid's start
deciding not to count them, makes the phony statistics look better, but wishing doesn't make it so.

there is a small book, How to lie with statistics. it will teach you how to spot classic misdirection. you will never view a government report the same way again.
 

Texas_Signmaker

Very Active Signmaker
"unemployment is historically low????"
millions have not returned to work from covid's start
deciding not to count them, makes the phony statistics look better, but wishing doesn't make it so.

there is a small book, How to lie with statistics. it will teach you how to spot classic misdirection. you will never view a government report the same way again.

Millions have not returned to the workforce because they don't want to. Many decided to retire. People like my wife decided she'd rather be a homemaker. Workforce participation is climbing but by historical standards is not where it was, but that is also because of the baby boomers retiring. A better statistic is the U6 which is VERY historically low.

 

GAC05

Quit buggin' me
My favorite 'not an employee anymore' guy started out ok. Then started showing up late and was just not all there, drugs I think but we don't test. One day I couldn't find our 4' stainless ruler. He had taken it and bent it into a slim-jim to try to get his car unlocked - found the mangled ruler in the wood scrap-bin...... Told him he needed to go get a new one for the shop but a day or 2 later, before he got around to it, I found his feet sticking out from under a vehicle, sleeping on a creeper. I called it even on the ruler and told him not to come back.
 

Boudica

I'm here for Educational Purposes
Millions have not returned to the workforce because they don't want to. Many decided to retire. People like my wife decided she'd rather be a homemaker. Workforce participation is climbing but by historical standards is not where it was, but that is also because of the baby boomers retiring. A better statistic is the U6 which is VERY historically low.

That's really interesting. I've always wondered how they get the data for the statistics though. It said "household survey" which doesn't sound reliably accurate. People lie, or just don't participate.
 

Notarealsignguy

Arial - it's almost helvetica
That's really interesting. I've always wondered how they get the data for the statistics though. It said "household survey" which doesn't sound reliably accurate. People lie, or just don't participate.
1000 is considered statistically significant. I think unemployment data comes from ADP? Most surveys are designed to eliminate bias because people want accurate data. When you analyze the data, you can determine the margin of error, it's all math. People don't understand statistics and think everything is slanted, except for what they want to believe. There is no reason to fudge employment numbers. It's a very important data set but some people think that everything in life is about politics. My degree was mainly centered around survey design, data analysis and statistics. Boring crap and I have forgot most of it.
 

Dale D

New Member
There is no reason to fudge employment numbers.
.......There is when either side wants to push a narrative, like how good leadership is or is not doing. I know I throw out all kind of false info when they contact me for surveys. Don't get me started on the inaccurate covid numbers that was thrown around the same way by leadership in the government.

I think the ones who know the best are those who are on the front lines of supplying/dealing with 100s of other businesses and listening to them on a daily basis, has a better clue.

Back to the recession topic.......2 different investment company owners as well as a connected high up near capital hill in DC (all 3) is suggesting that September is when they are expecting the collapse. We will see.
 

Texas_Signmaker

Very Active Signmaker
Don't believe statistics, believe hearsay from unnamed sources from an anonomous internet guy.

People get dumber by the day and think they are the smartest ones in the room. I wonder if this is a result of free Obama phones... Where they gave them out to the homeless. Those people's crazy conspiracy theories are making their way online.
 

Bobby H

Arial Sucks.
netsol said:
"unemployment is historically low????"
millions have not returned to work from covid's start
deciding not to count them, makes the phony statistics look better, but wishing doesn't make it so.

Some of these statistical figures, like the "core" consumer price index, are definitely a tinted view thru rose colored glasses. The Core CPI figure excludes prices of food and energy -things everyone has to buy on a frequent basis just to survive. Unemployment figures that are reported to the public in the news are deliberately vague. The figure says nothing about quality of employment. Many millions of Americans are under-employed, barely making enough to survive. Good quality jobs give workers enough discretionary income to fuel our economy in a positive manner and to support our tax base.

Texas_Signmaker said:
Millions have not returned to the workforce because they don't want to. Many decided to retire. People like my wife decided she'd rather be a homemaker. Workforce participation is climbing but by historical standards is not where it was, but that is also because of the baby boomers retiring. A better statistic is the U6 which is VERY historically low.

There are signs people who intended to leave the workforce and/or retire are getting dragged back into working because of spiking living costs. There is news Social Security benefits checks may increase by as much as 10.5% in 2023 via the annual cost of living allowance (COLA) rate. But those gains may be offset by Medicare Part B premiums. This year the COLA rate was 5.9%, but Medicare Part B premiums were jacked up by 14.5%.

There is plenty of motivation for people to get out of the workforce, especially if they've been working in service industry jobs. That's because some customers are just unbelievably rude, cruel jerks. Our nation has a serious anger management problem. In March some guy fired a gun into a Subway restaurant in Atlanta, hitting two female employees, one of whom died, all because there was too much mayonnaise on his sandwich. Thankfully incidents like that are rare. But physical assaults and verbal abuse are much more common. If a person is financially able to retire it makes perfect sense to quit that service industry job to get out of a negative environment.
 

Notarealsignguy

Arial - it's almost helvetica
.......There is when either side wants to push a narrative, like how good leadership is or is not doing. I know I throw out all kind of false info when they contact me for surveys. Don't get me started on the inaccurate covid numbers that was thrown around the same way by leadership in the government.

I think the ones who know the best are those who are on the front lines of supplying/dealing with 100s of other businesses and listening to them on a daily basis, has a better clue.

Back to the recession topic.......2 different investment company owners as well as a connected high up near capital hill in DC (all 3) is suggesting that September is when they are expecting the collapse. We will see.
So data is wrong and opinions are facts? Gotcha
 

Notarealsignguy

Arial - it's almost helvetica
Some of these statistical figures, like the "core" consumer price index, are definitely a tinted view thru rose colored glasses. The Core CPI figure excludes prices of food and energy -things everyone has to buy on a frequent basis just to survive. Unemployment figures that are reported to the public in the news are deliberately vague. The figure says nothing about quality of employment. Many millions of Americans are under-employed, barely making enough to survive. Good quality jobs give workers enough discretionary income to fuel our economy in a positive manner and to support our tax base.



There are signs people who intended to leave the workforce and/or retire are getting dragged back into working because of spiking living costs. There is news Social Security benefits checks may increase by as much as 10.5% in 2023 via the annual cost of living allowance (COLA) rate. But those gains may be offset by Medicare Part B premiums. This year the COLA rate was 5.9%, but Medicare Part B premiums were jacked up by 14.5%.

There is plenty of motivation for people to get out of the workforce, especially if they've been working in service industry jobs. That's because some customers are just unbelievably rude, cruel jerks. Our nation has a serious anger management problem. In March some guy fired a gun into a Subway restaurant in Atlanta, hitting two female employees, one of whom died, all because there was too much mayonnaise on his sandwich. Thankfully incidents like that are rare. But physical assaults and verbal abuse are much more common. If a person is financially able to retire it makes perfect sense to quit that service industry job to get out of a negative environment.
It's a simple indicator. It is not meant to account for underemployment and never was. This does not make it wrong. Same with the CPI. The metric does not change for these month to month and that in itself makes it relevant.
Arguing about this stuff reminds me of when people were up in arms over the no zero grading scale. 50 is just the new zero but people couldn't wrap their heads around it.
 

Texas_Signmaker

Very Active Signmaker
There isn't just one measure for inflation. You can see different information based on different ways to calculate inflation.

It's like temperature. You can measure air temp but you also have wind-chill, heat index, dew point, wet bulb... Looking at all of those gives you a better understanding of the conditions. A temp of 100 is hot, but if you say the heat index is 115 that's a different story.
 

Texas_Signmaker

Very Active Signmaker
There is more to government than just the people that run for political office. There are millions that make careers out of it and do their job with little regard to who is the president. The government audits itself to make sure budgets are in line and reports are accurate. Not saying that you trust everything that comes out of it, there is corruption and waste with that many people, just like anything in life... But this blanket "don't trust anything" is not making you look smarter than anyone..
 
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Dale D

New Member
There is more to government than just the people that run for political office. There are millions that make careers out of it and do their job with little regard to who is the president. but will do what they need for self preservation and to line their own pockets. The government audits itself to make sure budgets are in line and reports are accurate the same govt who is in so much debt that it prints money to pay it back ( if we did that we would go go to jail) . Not saying that you trust everything that comes out of it, there is corruption and waste with that many people, just like anything in life... But this blanket "don't trust anything" is not making you look smarter than anyone..
I fixed your statement, and i NEVER used any blanket statement, "dont trust anything"
... PS! I don't care how I look to a group of people who has no influence my Financials. If you dont agree, thats fine but for those who it helps, great. You can keep believing everything the government tells you if you want, but I know they falsify numbers to push or move money to different budgets. I have seen it firsthand with Covid, the push for anti oil, as well as this new anti 2A push right now. Numbers are included or excluded to push the narrative what they want. No I didn't take a college course on it! I lived it here in Maryland as well as I have family members who ask still involved in the government.
Now I've spent more time that what it's worth on this, "as a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still". Good day.
 

Notarealsignguy

Arial - it's almost helvetica
I fixed your statement, and i NEVER used any blanket statement, "dont trust anything"
... PS! I don't care how I look to a group of people who has no influence my Financials. If you dont agree, thats fine but for those who it helps, great. You can keep believing everything the government tells you if you want, but I know they falsify numbers to push or move money to different budgets. I have seen it firsthand with Covid, the push for anti oil, as well as this new anti 2A push right now. Numbers are included or excluded to push the narrative what they want. No I didn't take a college course on it! I lived it here in Maryland as well as I have family members who ask still involved in the government.
Now I've spent more time that what it's worth on this, "as a man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still". Good day.
What are you talking about? What does the government's money and budget have to do with your financials? And what does it have to do with unemployment data? You're just kind of ranting about nothing.
 
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