Discussion Forget Tariffs, what about a Pandemic?

[Stacey K]

I have not seen a slow down in business yet. I can see how people might start being more cautious with money until it's contained. Not many people have 30 days of vacation saved up for a possible quarantine. A person could expect to lose an tire month of pay, yet the house payment and electric bill still need to be paid. A month off of work would sure be nice but the bank account would SUCK LOL

 

[GAC05]

It's starting to hit hard here. Our tourist arrivals are way down and still dropping. Everyone in that industry is being put on short or no hours and it is rippling through the whole island. Our shop is coasting on work that is still in progress but our retail automotive is bottoming out. A couple of larger projects we were working on with the hotels have been put on hold.
Everyone is stocking up on bottled water and canned goods. Once it gets here things are going to get real interesting. The cruise ship that was turned away ended up being infected, it's only a matter of time before someone stepping off a plane drops it on us.

 

[Reveal1]

Your post was 25 days ago. The depth and spread of this virus as well as the broader impacts have risen exponentially as well as the obvious of the signals being sent that our "leadership" in Washington DC is completely out of touch with the threat or creating workable solutions.

Actually, the response in Washington has been uncharacteristically proactive and effective so far. Hopefully, we're not so caught up in our biases that we can't work together to solve a problem that potentially affects everyone. 14 of the US cases were a result of the Japanese govt. on-board quarantine of that cruise ship and brought back to US. The immediate ban on travel to/from China was effective and wise. But no argument here that things can and will probably get worse as this is way beyond the scope of just the US government with the movement of people all over the world, uncontrolled borders, and countries with much lower standard of healthcare and emergency capability potentially unable to control it's spread.

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

Bump. My poor 401K (insert sobbing emoji here)

I never sell when stocks go down. In fact, I started buying when it started to drop but things are getting ugly. I pulled almost everything out a few days ago and "saved" myself 6%. Hopefully this is the right move.

 

[Notarealsignguy]

I never sell when stocks go down. In fact, I started buying when it started to drop but things are getting ugly. I pulled almost everything out a few days ago and "saved" myself 6%. Hopefully this is the right move.

Stocks are for the long term as an individual trader. Don't look, hold on and ride the wave. You cant time the market and most people that do dick around with them themselves thinking they are smarter than everyone else, end up doing worse than the market as a whole. Even the majority of people that do it for a living don't beat it.
I think it is going to get worse, there is low confidence in the governments response and ability to manage this mess which plays into it. Then you also have outside supply chain factors. Hope it all passes

 

[TimToad]

Actually, the response in Washington has been uncharacteristically proactive and effective so far. Hopefully, we're not so caught up in our biases that we can't work together to solve a problem that potentially affects everyone. 14 of the US cases were a result of the Japanese govt. on-board quarantine of that cruise ship and brought back to US. The immediate ban on travel to/from China was effective and wise. But no argument here that things can and will probably get worse as this is way beyond the scope of just the US government with the movement of people all over the world, uncontrolled borders, and countries with much lower standard of healthcare and emergency capability potentially unable to control it's spread.

Not sure how firing top officials in the CDC Infectious disease department in 2018 and NOT replacing them as well as an 80% reduction in the CDC's International epidemic fighting program is being "uncharacteristically proactive and effective" but hopefully we're no so caught up in our bias that we can't work together to admit that there are some problems in the response and personnel allocations being made.

 

[Bobby H]

Your post was 25 days ago. The depth and spread of this virus as well as the broader impacts have risen exponentially as well as the obvious of the signals being sent that our "leadership" in Washington DC is completely out of touch with the threat or creating workable solutions.

The Dow Jones and NASDAQ got hit hard this week. That pretty much lived up to my worries from 4 weeks ago. There is still plenty of room for the market to find new lows.

The press appears to be saying the level of contagion has peaked in China, although there are new reports saying some people previously infected with COVID-19 who recovered have turned up positive for it again. Some scientists are worried this could be a sign the virus runs a "bi-phasal" course, like Anthrax.

Only 60 or so Americans have tested positive for COVID-19. But two of those cases are point of no origin infections. There is no sign of where they contracted it; neither person traveled to countries where outbreaks were happening or had any contact with people known to have COVID-19. That could mean the virus is spreading under the radar. One scientist from Harvard said this virus has the potential of eventually infecting 40% to 70% of the world's population. The vast majority of those who contract the virus will survive. But at a scale of 40%-70% of the world's population the death toll from the spread of this virus would easily scale into tens of millions of deaths.

Yea, well now the stock market has been reacting and it's not good. I got a message from my magnet supplier that they may have shortages. You can't find a medical quality face mask anywhere.

The funny thing is the standard masks do virtually nothing to prevent people from contracting a virus like COVID-19. They're really meant for people who are already sick, to prevent their coughs from spreading particulates through the air. There's a big shortage of the high quality respirator masks for health care workers. Those things have to be ordered in the right size and worn correctly to be effective. Health care workers on the front lines of this fight need the masks a lot more than anyone else.

 

[Notarealsignguy]

The funny thing is the standard masks do virtually nothing to prevent people from contracting a virus like COVID-19. They're really meant for people who are already sick, to prevent their coughs from spreading particulates through the air. There's a big shortage of the high quality respirator masks for health care workers. Those things have to be ordered in the right size and worn correctly to be effectively. Health care workers on the front lines of this fight need the masks a lot more than anyone else.

Say it louder. I just tried to order P95 pre-filters for our paint respirators and its slim pickens.
My wife works in the hospital and its a concern for me and was when ebola was around too. Difference now is that they have not given them any training, info on what to look for, protective info etc etc on this. As soon as ebola hit the news they had protocol in place on PPE and handling of the slightest sniff of it. This was done before case 1 even existed in the USA. There has been a few months to gear up for this and nothing has been done. I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Bly]

We just went on holidays to Thailand and Singapore. It was great. Hardly any tourists anywhere.

 

[iPrintStuff]

Been wondering about this. What happens in the USA if you all catch the coronavirus but can’t afford healthcare?

 

[White Haus]

Stocks are for the long term as an individual trader. Don't look, hold on and ride the wave. You cant time the market and most people that do dick around with them themselves thinking they are smarter than everyone else, end up doing worse than the market as a whole. Even the majority of people that do it for a living don't beat it.
I think it is going to get worse, there is low confidence in the governments response and ability to manage this mess which plays into it. Then you also have outside supply chain factors. Hope it all passes

I wish I could follow your advice about not looking....
I just started playing in the stock market a couple of weeks ago before it started crashing (very small amounts). Luckily it was all money I could afford to lose.......
There were only 3 stocks with positive returns yesterday in Canada (TSX) after all the losses last week.
It will be interesting to see what happens next week but I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom.

Stocks/making money aside - the whole thing is pretty scary. Every now and then there seems to be a glimpse of hope then there are more countries affected. I know the stats compared to the regular flu seems to make light of the coronavirus but the way the numbers are increasing certainly aren't good.

I hope the vaccines/treatments they're working on will work, and quickly.

 

[WildWestDesigns]

I wish I could follow your advice about not looking....
I just started playing in the stock market a couple of weeks ago before it started crashing (very small amounts). Luckily it was all money I could afford to lose.......
There were only 3 stocks with positive returns yesterday in Canada (TSX) after all the losses last week.
It will be interesting to see what happens next week but I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom.

Never should be the stocks day to day. People look for arbitrage all the time and it isn't there anymore without something hinky going on.

Long term investments are better.

I hope the vaccines/treatments they're working on will work, and quickly.

The problem that I have with this is what if something is rushed to quickly and it actually has worse side effects then what it's trying to treat? Things get rushed anyway during good times, imagine when people don't care about what little protocol and procedures are. It's a double edge sword and I'm nowhere near anti-vacs, so don't think that.

 

[Bobby H]

The reports I've seen suggest it will probably take around 18 months before a vaccine can be ready. That might be enough time for the virus to mutate.

Been wondering about this. What happens in the USA if you all catch the coronavirus but can’t afford healthcare?

If you can't afford health insurance coverage you're on your own. That's what happens. Maybe thoughts and prayers can be used to battle the illness. People without health insurance coverage will be forced to self-medicate and isolate themselves. But people who can't afford the high costs of health insurance probably can't afford to miss work either. So those who do contract COVID-19 are going to tell themselves they just have a cold and go to work anyway. They're still going to go to the stores to get food, medication, etc. I don't think there are very many Americans who are ready to put themselves into full lock-down in their homes for a two to three week stint.

 

[rjssigns]

Trump 4eva

Explain please.

 

[BC61]

One major concern for the industry is that most of the photointiators for our inks are made in China. I'm already hearing a spike in the price of ink is coming soon. Depending how bad this gets, could there be a shortage of ink? On the bright side I guess I could use my flatbed as a coffee table....

 

[Gene@mpls]

Thoughts and prayers.

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

It was a meme that was in the news when I made the post. CNN was upset with it

 

[WildWestDesigns]

If you can't afford health insurance coverage you're on your own.

Yep, the way that it is.

People without health insurance coverage will be forced to self-medicate and isolate themselves. But people who can't afford the high costs of health insurance probably can't afford to miss work either.

Speaking as someone that doesn't have health insurance, what I do is set aside money every payday and that presents a nice little nest egg. Now if something really bad happens, then it's SOL (but that could be the case with insurance as well) over the long haul.

Also, it has been my experience if you tell the doctors that your paying in "cash" right then and there, there are usually steep discounts to be had (which makes one wonder about things as well, but I digress).

Now, all of this is under normal circumstances, so keep that in mind.

So those who do contract COVID-19 are going to tell themselves they just have a cold and go to work anyway. They're still going to go to the stores to get food, medication, etc.

People do that anyway, regardless if there is a major outbreak of something or not. People will default to what they know more then often then not. I've seen people that thing something is just a headache when it was actually a tumor.

People will in general go to work anyway, go to school anyway etc and those areas are just breeding grounds for illness. I use to get sick twice a year when I was in college from dipwads that didn't stay home when they were sick, which caused me to stay home (I wasn't driving 40 miles one way feeling like crap).

I don't think there are very many Americans who are ready to put themselves into full lock-down in their homes for a two to three week stint.

Shoot, I'm ready. Even having CO-OP deliver my horse related supplies if I have to versus going out for even that. Now some workers that are able to telecommute, probably won't feel the sting like others. My wife is able to do her job telecommuting, most of my work for yrs as been that way. That's not everyone mind you, but there are some that would be able to be handle being isolated a little more and still be able to work.

 

[ikarasu]

More cases pop up each day. The thing that makes this disease deadly is the Infection time.

Everyone is going to get hit. It's impossible not to - it takes up to two weeks while your contagious before symptoms show. So that new case that just appeared in Washington today? They've had two weeks to spread the virus unknowingly. The virus sticks to surfaces for days... Including cash... And to Non metal surfaces for a week or two.

The city next to me had a school kid infected. No idea how they got it... Then a few days later a second school kid. I imagine in two weeks the numbers will be 20x what they are now in USA and canada. No country is equipped to handle it.


How are your guys supplies? We usually buy Nikkalite for some of our reflective... We're told they're out of stock and it's a 2 month wait for more to get in.

OuR aluminum suppliers had 2 skids of aluminum....same thing, 2 Months for more.

We do a lot of polara - us manufactured devices... Well, one part In the traffic buttons is a Chinese chip they can't get in. Lots of that backordered also...

We've spent $40-50,000 on stock that we forsee is going to be scarce in the coming weeks / months... And that's just the essentials.

Weve had to use alternate vinyls and materials that we've never tested before. Our chemical supplier just warned us they have a shortage.


We try to buy mostly Canadian / usa produced products. But it seems even those have parts / ingredients from China, so we're getting hit every way possible in shortages. It's going to be an interesting couple months.

 

[Texas_Signmaker]

Yea, three cases now but they have had two weeks to spread. Really it could be in anyone's town now. I'll bet the next cases show up in Texas.